Germany – Early Bird climbs further

After a steady decline over the course of last year, the Early Bird indicator has been trending slightly upward again since the start of this year. In March, our leading indicator for the German economy actually rose by 6 points to 23. This is primarily due to weaker headwinds from the FX market. In addition, the purchasing managers’ indices for the U.S., China, and the eurozone (excluding Germany) have risen, indicating a slightly improved global economic environment, although the indicators have been distorted by a special effect (for details, see here ). The monetary environment has continued to deteriorate somewhat. This is because the ECB’s interest rate cuts are becoming increasingly distant in the past, so that the stimulus from this source is gradually waning. Speculation about an ECB interest rate hike has even caused short-term interest rates to rise slightly recently.

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