Germany – Early Bird deep in positive territorry

The Early Bird rose from 30 to 33 points in July. The global economic environment has thus improved somewhat, as the strong rise in the ISM index for U.S. manufacturing more than offset the decline in the other two purchasing managers’ indices – for China and the eurozone (excluding Germany) – that we include in our Early Bird calculation. Added to this was a slightly weaker euro, which provided some tailwinds for the German economy from the FX market. These two factors outweighed the fact that the tailwind from monetary policy continued to diminish. Although the short-term real interest rate remains very low, it is now higher than it was a year ago.

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