Germany – Early Bird remains stable

Our leading indicator for the German economy, the Early Bird, fell slightly by one point to 30 in May.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

06/19/2026

The main factor was the steadily weakening tailwind from monetary policy, which the weaker euro and a more favorable global economic environment were unable to fully offset. Despite the slightly lower May reading of the Early Bird, however, “normal” economic conditions remain above average, and this, together with higher government spending, is likely to largely offset the burdens caused by the Iran war.

The Early Bird remained at a fairly high level in May. It fell only slightly, from 31 to 30 points, and thus remains well above the zero line, continuing to signal above-average cyclical conditions for the German economy. As in previous months, the boost from monetary policy has diminished. This is because the economy is receiving hardly any stimulus from the ECB’s interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. The overall monetary environment remains positive only because of the low level of short-term real interest rates. On its own, the economic outlook has improved due to a somewhat weaker euro and a slightly better-than-average global economic environment, which is primarily attributable to a higher ISM index for the U.S. manufacturing sector.

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Germany – Early Bird remains stable

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