Germany – Early Bird rising again

Our leading indicator for the German economy rose from 35 to 40 points in May, ...

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

06/06/2025

...stabilizing for the time being after two consecutive declines. The global economic environment improved slightly and headwinds from the currency market eased somewhat. However, the decisive factor for the high level of the Early Bird is monetary policy, which has been loosened until recently. This should contribute significantly to a revival of the German economy in the coming months, despite higher US tariffs.

After falling in March and April, the Early Bird rose again by 5 points to 40 points in May. It thus continues to indicate a clearly above-average environment for the German economy. This is due to the ECB, which has significantly eased its monetary policy. Our leading indicator is being held back by the relatively weak global economy and developments on the FX market, although both subcomponents improved slightly in May. The purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector in China and the eurozone (excluding Germany) rose, more than offsetting the slight decline in the corresponding US indicator, and the euro depreciated slightly, making German products somewhat more competitive on the world market again.

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Germany – Early Bird keeps on rising (pdf, 109 KB)

Germany – Early Bird rising again

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