Trade agreements – What happens after EU-Mercosur?

With the Mercosur free trade agreement, the EU wants to give European companies better access to the South American market...

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Dr. Vincent Stamer

Commerzbank Economic Research

01/23/2026

...in order to offset the burden of higher US tariffs. Although the agreement is back on hold following a decision by the European Parliament, it could be applied provisionally in the future. In addition, further trade agreements are likely to follow in the coming months, which will also offer important opportunities for the German economy.

Mercosur agreement fuels hope ...

This week, Donald Trump's back-and-forth on tariffs in the dispute over Greenland once again highlighted the importance of new trade agreements with other major economies. If exports to the US slump due to rising tariffs, such agreements will open up alternatives for European exporters. Currently, however, countries with a potential trade agreement account for only 5% of German exports, while the US attracts around 10% of exports.

Just a week ago, the EU Commission and the heads of state of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay signed the so-called EU-Mercosur Agreement. This agreement would significantly facilitate trade between South American countries and the EU. Ultimately, not only would mutual tariffs be eliminated, but other trade barriers would also be dismantled through the harmonization of technical standards, mutual recognition of patents and professional qualifications, and mutual investment protection.

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