US midterm elections — a setback for Trump?

Will voters give a thumbs-down for Trump?

Americans are dissatisfied. According to polls, they are primarily concerned about high inflation, and the war against Iran is unpopular. President Trump’s approval ratings are therefore very low; on average across various polls, about 55% disapprove of his performance in office. The Republican Party is therefore looking with concern toward the midterm elections on November 3. On that day, all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be up for reelection, and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election. So far, the Republicans have held majorities in both houses of Congress, which makes governing easier. This is likely to change with the elections.

Democrats are favored in the House of Representatives, ...

In the past, Americans have almost always used midterm elections to strengthen the opposition. Since 1950, the President’s party has typically lost seats in the House of Representatives during midterm elections, averaging 18 seats. One of the few exceptions was the 2002 election, which was shaped by the extraordinary circumstances following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Since the Republicans currently hold only a slim majority of 218 seats to the Democrats’ 212 (of the remaining 5 seats, 4 are vacant and 1 is held by an independent), it is very likely that the Democrats will take the majority in the House of Representatives away from the Republicans.

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