ECB rate hike postponed, not cancelled
The ECB is unlikely to raise its key interest rates for the second time in a row next week.
Commerzbank Economic Research
07/17/2026
No interest rate hike in July, ...
At its meeting next week, the ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates for the second time in a row. That’s because the central bankers lack an urgent reason to send such a strong signal. Oil and gas prices are well below the war-induced highs, even though they have recently risen again due to the resurgence of fighting.
... but still likely in the coming months, ...
This raises the question of whether the ECB will raise its key interest rates at all by the end of the year. ECB officials have recently become somewhat more cautious again in their comments regarding the possibility of further monetary tightening. As a result, our revised ( Economic Insight: “ChatECB Model Signals Readiness for a Rate Hike” ) has recently fallen slightly.
Nevertheless, we still forecast a rate hike at the September meeting, when ECB economists will present their new projections. This is because central bank officials continue to monitor the situation “closely,” which, in central bank jargon, points to a tendency toward monetary tightening. Furthermore, despite the recent decline, our ChatECB Index, at a value of 0.37, remains at a level at which ECB policymakers have historically tended to raise key interest rates.
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