German elections – can the next government kickstart growth?
The "Union" of CDU and CSU is expected to win the German parliamentary elections on Sunday and thus provide the chancellor.
Commerzbank Economic Research
02/21/2025
Friedrich Merz will probably be the next Chancellor,...
Shortly before the Bundestag election, one thing seems clear: the CDU/CSU (who form a "union" in the Bundestag) will win this election by a clear margin, and the CDU's party leader Friedrich Merz will be the next Chancellor. Despite a slight downward trend, the average poll numbers for the two parties are still just over 30% and thus well above the numbers for the other parties.
There has also been little movement among the other “major” parties in recent weeks. The right-wing AfD is clearly in second place, followed by the SPD and the Greens, with the gap between the two parties being quite small.
There has been more movement recently among the “smaller” parties. The poll numbers of the Left Party have improved significantly in recent weeks; there is now much to suggest that this party will also be part of the next Bundestag. On the other hand, the trend in the poll numbers for the “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW, a newly formed left-wing party named after her leader) continues to point downward, with the result that this party is now below 5% in the average of the seven opinion research institutes we have considered. The latter also applies to the business-friendly FDP, which was recently estimated at 5% again in two surveys, which would be enough for it to enter the Bundestag.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
