An import tsunami from China?

Due to high US tariffs, the Europeans fear a glut of cheap goods from China. If Chinese companies are unable to sell their goods in the United States, Chinese exporters could divert goods previously produced for the American market to other countries at discounted prices. At first glance, this fear has already come true: the EU Commission has shown that imports of 126 product groups into the EU have recently risen dramatically, while the prices of these goods have fallen significantly (link). However, since the European Union imports up to 9,600 product groups, the trend observed in 126 products is not yet proof that a large-scale diversion effect has already begun.

Imports from China have been rising for some time

A look at overall trade flows shows that German imports from China have indeed risen significantly in recent years and that the corresponding import prices have fallen. Adjusted for price changes, Germany imported €2.7 billion more goods in the third quarter of this year than in the same period of 2023 – an increase of 12%. At the same time, prices for these imports were 1.8% lower than two years earlier. However, this trend had already begun at least one year before the introduction of US tariffs in April 2025.

Furthermore, an increase of imports from China is not an isolated case, although the absolute increase in imports from China is the strongest of all trading partners. Imports from European Union countries, Africa, and emerging Asian countries have also risen significantly. Import prices from emerging Asian countries have fallen even more sharply than those from China. In contrast, imports from the United States, European countries outside the EU (Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), and developed Asian countries have fallen. This indicates a general shift in imports from developed countries to developing and emerging countries, from which China benefits most.

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