What will be important in 2026

We highlight the issues that are likely to shape 2026 and what this could mean for the markets.

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Bernd Weidensteiner, Dr. Christoph Balz

Commerzbank Economic Research

01/09/2026

Among other things, we examine whether an AI bubble could burst, whether the Fed will remain independent, whether Germany will experience an economic downturn, whether there is a threat of a sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, and what could happen in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Is an AI bubble about to burst?

Many investors are fascinated by artificial intelligence (AI) and have driven up the share prices of the main players (the “Magnificent Seven”) in particular. Now, more and more investors are asking whether this is a bubble and when it will burst.

There are indeed serious warning signs. This applies above all to the increasing interdependence and interconnection of companies. The fear is that companies are inflating their sales through mutual supply contracts. Cross-shareholdings increase systemic risk because they link the futures of many companies to one another. In addition, IT investments by US companies have now risen to 4.5% of gross domestic product, which is as high as they were at the peak of the New Economy bubble in 2000.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.

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