Germany – Early bird in slight decline
Our leading indicator for the German economy fell slightly again in July, from 37 to 33 points.
Dr Ralph Solveen
Commerzbank Economic Research
08/13/2025
The stronger euro and a weaker global environment were the main reasons for this, while there were hardly any changes in the monetary policy. Still well in positive territory, the Early Bird continues to point to a continuation of the upturn in the German economy that is already underway, especially since the indicator does not take into account fiscal policy, which will give the economy a strong boost next year at the latest.
In July, the Early Bird fell again, continuing the slight downward trend of recent months. However, at 33 points – down from 37 in June – it remains well in positive territory, signaling an above-average economic environment for the German economy. As in previous months, however, this is solely attributable to monetary policy. By contrast, the environment for foreign trade remains below average, with the stronger euro recently adding to the headwinds from the FX market.
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