Germany – Early Bird in decline

Our leading indicator for the German economy fell from 32 to 29 points in October, continuing its slight downward trend.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

11/07/2025

This is because the tailwind from monetary policy is gradually subsiding and the global economic environment has deteriorated slightly. However, the Early Bird remains clearly in positive territory, continuing to signal an economic upturn. This is all the more true given that the Early Bird does not take into account fiscal policy, which is likely to give the economy a noticeable boost in the coming year.

Will the widely hoped-for upturn materialize or not? A glance at the Early Bird could raise certain doubts. Our leading indicator has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, continuing in October with a decline from 32 to 29 points. This was due in part to a somewhat unfavorable global economic environment. The purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector in the US and China fell, which could not be offset by a slight increase in the index for the eurozone. In addition, the tailwind from monetary policy is no longer quite as strong, as the ECB's interest rate cuts are gradually falling out of the year-on-year comparison we are looking at.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.

Download

Germany – Early Bird in decline (pdf, 181 KB)

Germany – Early Bird in decline

Download

Further publications

Germany – Early Bird continues to decline

Germany – Stronger euro weighs on Early Bird

Germany – Early Bird continues to give hope