Germany – Trump weighs on Early Bird

Our leading indicator for the German economy fell quite significantly in April for the second month in a row.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

05/09/2025

The decline from 43 points in March to 35 points in April was due to a weaker global economy and a stronger euro, which are probably primarily attributable to the tariff policy of the US president. With a value well in positive territory, the Early Bird continues to signal above-average economic conditions and thus an imminent upturn in the German economy. However, this is likely to be very moderate, partly due to US tariff policy.

After rising for around a year and a half, in April the Early Bird fell for the second month in a row, from 43 to 35 points.The monetary environment actually improved slightly. However, this was outweighed by the fact that the euro strengthened, particularly against the US dollar, as a result of the noticeable increase in tariffs on US imports, and by the decline in purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector in the US and China. Even a slightly better figure for the eurozone (excluding Germany) was unable to offset this.

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Further publications

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