Early Bird stable
The Early Bird, our leading indicator for the German economy, fell slightly from 21 to 20 points in February...
Dr Ralph Solveen
Commerzbank Economic Research
03/06/2026
... meaning that it has remained virtually unchanged on balance over the last three months. However, it is significantly lower than it was for much of last year, suggesting that the factors it tracks do not point to a further upturn in the German economy. Significantly higher government spending is likely to ensure this, however.
At 20 points, the Early Bird was one point lower in February than in the previous month. The main reason for this was that the impetus from monetary policy is gradually diminishing. A slightly better global economic environment was unable to fully compensate for this. The strength of the headwinds from the foreign exchange market remained unchanged.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
