Germany – setback for the Early Bird

Our leading indicator for the German economy fell slightly in March for the first time since the end of 2023.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

04/11/2025

The main reasons for this were a slightly less favorable global economic environment and a somewhat stronger euro. However, at 44 points – compared to 48 points in February – the Early Bird remains well in positive territory and thus signals clearly above-average economic conditions for the German economy. This suggests that the economy will pick up again in the course of this year.

Every series comes to an end at some point. This also applies to the Early Bird. After rising for 14 consecutive months, it fell by four points in March, from 48 to 44. While the monetary environment has not changed much, the other two sub-components have declined. The global economic environment has deteriorated somewhat, as the slight increase in the PMIs for the manufacturing sector in China and the euro area (excluding Germany) was unable to offset the decline in the ISM index for US manufacturing. In addition, the euro gained some ground in March, meaning that the slight tailwind for the German economy from the currency market has already subsided.

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Germany – setback for the Early Bird

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Further publications

Germany – Early Bird is flying high

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