Germany – Early Bird continues to decline

With a decline from 27 to 20 points, the Early Bird continued its downward trend in November that has persisted since the beginning of the year. One reason for this is the stronger euro. According to our estimates, the indicator of the German economy's price competitiveness – the real external value of a fictitious Deutschmark – was almost 3% higher than a year ago. The last time there was such a sharp increase within a year was a good two years ago. In addition, the degree of monetary policy expansion is declining as the ECB's interest rate cuts are becoming a thing of the past. Despite the long lag in the effects of monetary policy, the boost from this side is likely to subside by next year at the latest. In addition, the global economic environment has also deteriorated slightly

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