China – October PMIs split widened

China's official PMIs slipped back into contraction in October, missing consensus on both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, ...

Dr. Henry Hao

Commerzbank Economic Research

11/02/2026

... while the private RatingDog survey held firmly in expansion territory. The divergence reflects a structural split between large state-linked enterprises and export-oriented private manufacturers. Separately, the PBoC today formally adopted the overnight reverse repo rate as its new primary policy anchor, marking a key shift in China's monetary framework.

Official PMIs miss across the board

China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 (Bloomberg consensus: 49.9) vs 50.1 in September. The reading slips back into contraction after just one month of expansion, reinforcing the view that September's recovery was partly a seasonal artifact. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed a portion of the October softening to demand being brought forward ahead of the National Day Golden Week holiday, which temporarily lifted September activity. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI eased to 49.7 (Bloomberg consensus: 50.0) vs 50.2 previously, with construction activity weighing most heavily on the headline. The composite PMI settled at 49.7, marking a broad-based loss of momentum across both goods and services.

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