Germany Recovery Monitor – Update

The German economy has grown quite strongly again in recent quarters, although it has been burdened by the Iran war and the resulting sharp rise in energy prices.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

11/11/2026

We regularly look at indicators for the individual sectors of the German economy and check them for indications of whether the German economy will continue to grow. This is supported by the fact that sentiment indicators have recently risen further or are at least at quite high levels. In terms of "hard" figures, there has recently been positive news from manufacturing in particular. Residential construction and retail in particular remain weak points. However, they are unlikely to prevent the German economy from growing in the fourth quarter as well.

Manufacturing: Better mood, signs of hope in "hard" data

The Ifo business climate for industry brightened further in October. Both the assessment of the current business situation and the business expectations were more positive than in the previous month. For the first time, there were (slightly) more positive than negative responses to both subcomponents. This was last the case in the summer of 2023 in the assessment of the situation, and negative responses to business expectations have even predominated since the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.

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Germany Recovery Monitor – Update (pdf, 147 KB)

Germany Recovery Monitor – Update

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