Dark transits – when will oil prices fall?

The scenario of gradual de-escalation is playing out, ...

Reciprocal attacks in the Middle East continue to dominate the news, most recently with the Houthi attacks on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company. A diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Persian Gulf remains further away than ever. Nevertheless, more and more oil tankers are managing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, often at night in convoys escorted by the US Navy and without transmitting position signals. These ship passages, known as “dark transits”, have increased further in recent weeks, as we had expected. Including exports via the ports of Yanbu on the Red Sea and Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, crude oil exports were almost back to pre-war levels by the end of September.

This has raised hopes all the more that energy prices have also reached their peak. That would not only ease the burden on European industry but also calm financial markets. Government bond yields had risen, in part due to expectations of higher inflation and interest rate hikes. Falling energy prices could provide at least some relief.

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