India's transition – opportunities for Germany

India has been the fastest-growing major economy since 2023, significantly outperforming China and most other emerging economies.

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Dr. Vincent Stamer, Charlie Lay

Commerzbank Economic Research

11/06/2026

It is increasingly viewed as a potential complement to China in global supply chains. We assess the reforms already achieved and the reforms needed to propel growth to another level and outline the implications for German corporates. Some headwinds for the Indian economy remain.

India grows rapidly

India has been the fastest-growing major economy since 2023, with real GDP growth averaging around 7.3% compared to 5% for China and the ASEAN economies. Of course, India is starting from a much lower income base than China and several Southeast Asian economies. But its population of more than 1.4 billion, rising household incomes, and substantial infrastructure needs offer considerable opportunities for European exporters ranging from premium consumer products and healthcare to capital goods, electrical equipment and transport technology.

At the same time, India is far from a uniform market. Income levels, industrial clusters, logistics, workforce skills, and administrative capacity differ sharply across states. These differences help explain why foreign investment is concentrated in a relatively small number of locations. For European companies, choosing the right state, city and distribution network can be as consequential as the decision to enter India in the first place.

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