US – Deficits don't matter, until they do

In fiscal year 2026, which just ended, the U.S. federal government’s deficit rose to $2 trillion, ...

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Bernd Weidensteiner

Commerzbank Economic Research

10/09/2026

...exceeding 6% of GDP. In addition to the continued increase in social spending, higher interest payments weighed on the budget. There is no relief in sight; the national debt will soon surpass the previous record high set at the end of World War II.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released preliminary figures: The U.S. federal budget deficit rose by nearly $220 billion to just under $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026, which ended in late September. This amounts to 6.2% of gross domestic product. Despite an economy close to full employment—which would normally reduce government budget deficits—there has been no progress whatsoever in fiscal consolidation over the past five years. Even after the end of the extraordinary circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, the deficit remained in the range of about 6% of GDP.

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