When will the ECB support France?

French government bonds are under pressure.

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Dr. Jörg Krämer

Commerzbank Economic Research

10/05/2026

However, the ECB is likely to activate its TPI bond-purchase programme only as a last resort, should developments in the bond market become disorderly. Before then, it would probably try less forceful measures. We outline the ECB’s policy options.

French government bonds under severe pressure

French government bonds are under severe pressure. While the yield spread between ten-year French government bonds and comparable German Bunds widened only moderately in August, it has recently surged. At 140 basis points, it is now at its highest level since 2012, at the peak of the sovereign debt crisis.

Investors are particularly nervous because the government, lacking political majorities, is not reducing the excessively high budget deficit. However, it would need to be cut by around 5% of GDP over the coming years merely to prevent French government debt from continuing to rise faster than GDP.

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