German state elections – implications for Mr. Merz and his reforms

Sunday's state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have strengthened the fringes of the political spectrum.

Dr. Jörg Krämer

Commerzbank Economic Research

09/21/2026

Chancellor Merz’s power base has continued to shrink, although his removal is considered unlikely. It is increasingly doubtful whether the government will implement its reforms as already agreed upon.

Strengthening of the political spectrum’s right and left fringe

The state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have strengthened the left and right fringes of the political spectrum. The right wing AfD made massive gains in both states and became the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2% of the vote. In Berlin, the Left Party attracted the largest share of votes with 25.7% (Chart 2). By contrast, the parties governing at the federal level suffered heavy losses. For the first time in its history, the Christian Democratic CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is no longer represented in a state parliament as it failed to clear the 5% hurdle. The Social Democratic SPD also lost significant support in both federal states.

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