How far will the ECB raise rates?

The ECB is expected to raise its key interest rates next week.

Dr. Jörg Krämer, Bernd Weidensteiner

Commerzbank Economic Research

09/04/2026

Further rate hikes, as anticipated by the market, are possible but unlikely. This is because the inflation rate is likely to continue to evolve in line with the ECB’s baseline scenario for the time being, to which the central bank has announced only a modest response. Furthermore, according to the ECB’s assessment, the deposit rate—at 2.5% starting next week—will be close to the upper end of its neutral range, a level that the monetary policy doves—who, according to our updated Hawkometer, remain clearly in the majority on the ECB Governing Council—are unlikely to want to exceed.

The ECB will raise interest rates next week, ...

The ECB is expected to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time next week, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50 percent. Even representatives of the dovish camp on the ECB Governing Council have expressed views along these lines. According to Primož Dolenc, governor of the Slovenian central bank, the case for a rate hike is currently strong, especially since the “inflation situation is not resolving itself.” Olli Rehn, governor of the Finnish central bank, considers market expectations to be “understandable.” In light of these clear signals from the ECB Governing Council, the futures markets have fully priced in this rate hike, and nearly all economists surveyed by Bloomberg also expect a rate hike.

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