Risk of energy price shock
Just under a week after the start of the Iran war, there is no end in sight.
Commerzbank Economic Research
03/06/2026
If the war drags on, ...
How much will the war in Iran weigh on the global economy and financial markets? Obviously, this depends largely on how long the war lasts and how severely it disrupts oil and gas supplies. In our baseline scenario, we continue to assume that the war and the resulting disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will end in a few weeks. However, given the US and Israeli governments' repeated statements about their goal of “regime change,” there is a risk that the attacks by the US and Israel will drag on for several months, thereby disrupting oil and gas transportation for a longer period of time. In an extreme case, this could prevent one-fifth of global production of both oil and liquefied natural gas from reaching the world market.
... the price of oil could rise to $100
Even in the event of a prolonged conflict, there would probably be no shortage of oil and gas, but the reduced supply would certainly cause the price of oil to rise. According to a VAR model we have estimated, a 20% reduction in supply – with all other conditions remaining unchanged – would cause the price of oil to rise to USD 100. The price of LNG could also rise further in such a scenario.
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