Oil shortage – how much higher will prices have to go?

Higher oil prices are curbing consumption, ...

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced supply on the global oil market. After all, approximately 20% of global oil supply previously passed through this strait. Only a portion of this supply can reach consumers via alternative routes or be replaced by increased production in other regions—such as Kazakhstan. Overall, without the Strait of Hormuz reopening, daily oil supply on the global market is likely to be about 12 million barrels per day lower in the long term than it was before the start of the Iran War.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil demand will have to adjust to this reduced supply. There are already early signs of this: In March, more than 100,000 electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) were newly registered in Germany—more than in any other month since 2024—and German airlines have already canceled thousands of flights: Furthermore, sentiment indicators point to a noticeable economic slowdown, which will cause companies to consume less energy. This comes at a time when low-emission technologies are becoming increasingly popular anyway. As a result, exports of these goods from China continue to rise unabated.

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