The ECB's four oracles
Which ECB Governing Council member is sending the most reliable signals about future monetary policy?
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/02/2025
In the past, it was often the Governor of the Banque de France, Villeroy de Galhau, who gave reliable signals ahead of ECB Governing Council meetings regarding the monetary policy decisions. This assessment of Villeroy's predictive quality was based on the many years of experience of our ECB and rates analysts. With the technical capabilities that have grown in recent years, we now use AI to analyze several hundred speeches, comments, and interviews by ECB Governing Council members.
The numerous significant changes in monetary policy in recent years are helpful in this regard, as such variation in the data provides excellent conditions for analysis. AI enables us to analyze many texts using objective and consistent assessment criteria.
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