Eurozone – Inflation back above 2%

The inflation rate in the eurozone rose from 2.0% to 2.2% in September.

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Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

10/01/2025

However, this is largely due to a smaller decline in energy prices. The core rate, which excludes the often very volatile energy and food prices, remained at 2.3%, as in August. This is still slightly higher than the ECB's target, but hardly a reason to change key interest rates.

As generally expected, the eurozone inflation rate rose from 2.0% to 2.2% in September. The main reason for this was that energy prices were only 0.4% lower than a year earlier. In recent months, the decline compared with the same month last year had been significantly greater, putting correspondingly greater downward pressure on the overall inflation rate. Excluding energy prices and the prices of food and beverages, the inflation rate was 2.3%, meaning that this core rate remained unchanged from the previous month.

A look at the subcomponents of the core inflation rate shows that inflation for goods (excluding energy and food) was 0.8% for the third month in a row. Ultimately, however, it has hardly changed since mid-2024. In contrast, the inflation rate for services has been on a downward trend for several months, although this came to a halt in September. In September, the rate rose slightly from 3.1% to 3.2%.

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