Update €-inflation – The core rate does not budge
Our quant model based on machine learning forecasts higher core inflation in the euro area for the coming months than it did in August.
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/21/2025
Core inflation remains stubborn
Our machine learning-based quant model for inflation in the euro area (see here ) continues to expect inflation to fluctuate around the ECB's target of 2% in the coming months. Energy prices are likely to continue to fall in the coming months due to low oil prices. However, the quant model expects higher inflation excluding energy, food, and beverages than previously forecast. As a result, the year-on-year core rate is likely to fall only very slowly toward the ECB's target of 2% over the next twelve months.
However, some other indicators signal a short-term downside risk for services inflation.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
