A boost for the German economy from fellow euro countries?

The other eurozone countries combined are much more important as export markets for German companies than the US or China,...

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Dr. Vincent Stamer, Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

08/29/2025

... and thus have a noticeable impact on the German economy. Their economies will also increasingly benefit from the looser monetary policy. However, fiscal policy is likely to act as a brake here, and the boost from the substantial inflows from the EU's recovery fund is likely to weaken. Also, their economies are suffering from higher US tariffs. Overall, therefore, the eurozone economy excluding Germany is likely to grow somewhat more slowly next year than in previous quarters, thus providing no additional impetus to the German economy.

Eurozone much more important as export market than US and China

Is the German economy picking up steam? This will also depend on the demand from abroad. While the US and China truly play a significant role in the discussion about the growth prospects of the German economy, developments in other eurozone countries, however, are largely ignored. Yet, these countries combined are more than twice as important as the US plus China as export markets.

Ups and downs in growth rates largely parallel, ...

This inattention in the current discussion can probably be explained by the fact that the German economy and the other countries in the monetary union are developing in roughly parallel. This is hardly surprising, as many of the factors driving the economy are similar for all of them: monetary policy, movements in euro exchange rates, and economic developments outside the euro area.

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