The decline of "Made in Germany"

Real exports are falling

It has now been 17 years since the German economy was last able to call itself the “world export champion”, i.e. the world's largest exporter of goods. Germany now has to settle for third place behind China and the US. Our analysis shows that there is a worrying trend behind the decline in the export rankings: although nominal exports rose sharply in 2021 and 2022, this is only due to high inflation. Adjusted for price changes (in real terms), exports have been falling since 2018. We examine why Germany is exporting fewer and fewer goods and provide an outlook.

The problem only affects Germany

One possible explanation could be that the countries buying German goods are importing less because their economies are stagnating. But if that were the case, other countries would also have to record declines in exports. This is not the case, however, because the advanced countries excluding Germany have increased their exports of goods in price-adjusted terms. The most important importers of German products actually imported more goods overall between 2019 and 2024 – just not from Germany. This loss of market share is particularly striking in Asia. Germany's exports to China fell by more than a quarter in price-adjusted terms over the five-year period. China's total imports, on the other hand, rose. Asian developing countries also increased their imports from the rest of the world by more than 20%. However, German exports to these countries fell by around 8%.

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