Trump's 30% tariff threat against the EU
US President Donald Trump has threatened the European Union with tariffs of 30% starting August 1.
Commerzbank Economic Research
07/14/2025
What does the letter to the EU say?
Despite recent positive signals from negotiations between the European Union and the United States, US President Donald Trump published a tariff letter to the EU on Saturday. In the text, he announces a tariff of 30% on goods from the EU, which will come into force on August 1. This base tariff replaces the “reciprocal” tariff of 10% that has been in place for three months.
Although Trump does not specify in his letter which goods will be subject to the tariffs exactly, the 30% tariff is likely to apply to those goods for which reciprocal tariffs have been in place until now. However, the 30% tariff is likely to be applied to those goods that have been subject to reciprocal tariffs up to now. These goods account for around 60% of goods exported from the EU to the US. Products such as pharmaceuticals are likely to remain exempt for the time being. The sectoral tariffs of 25% and 50% will continue to apply to cars and car parts, as well as steel and aluminum products, respectively.
The EU will have to respond by August 1 at the latest
Many participants in the negotiations between the EU and the US were ostensibly surprised by Trump's provocation. This has led to louder calls within the EU for retaliatory tariffs against the US. In the short term, the EU has retaliatory tariffs available on imports worth around 21 billion Euros. In addition, there is a second list of goods, which is significantly longer and is currently still being finalized, covering around 40% of imports from the US. We analyzed the details of possible EU countermeasures in our Week in Focus .
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
