Germany – Setback for order intake

Order intake in German manufacturing was 1.4% lower in May than in the previous month.

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Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

07/04/2025

Excluding big-ticket orders, which are often highly volatile, the decline was even greater at 3.1%. This does not necessarily contradict expectations that the German economy will pick up in the course of the year. However, together with weak industrial sales figures, it points to another subdued second quarter and supports our view that the upcoming recovery will be only moderate.

These are clearly disappointing figures from the German manufacturing sector: in May, it received 1.4% fewer new orders than in the previous month, and without big-ticket orders, which have little impact on production in the short term, there was even a decline of 3.1%. At the same time, the Federal Statistical Office reported that industrial sales were 1.9% lower than in the previous month after adjustment for price changes.

With the weak May figures for orders, the upward trend that had emerged after the fairly good April figures is once again in doubt. This is because order intake has fallen back to the level at which it has been moving sideways since the spring of last year. However, a noticeable increase in June, which is quite possible given the slightly improved mood among companies reflected in the Ifo business climate index, would change the picture again. But even then, this upward trend would be rather subdued and would hardly signal a strong upturn in industry.

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