US labor market is – still – stable

The data...

In February, the US labor market added 151,000 jobs. This was roughly in line with expectations (consensus 160,000, Commerzbank 175,000). Revisions to previous data more or less offset each other. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.0% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased at a slightly slower rate of 0.3% compared to the previous month. Compared to the previous year, wages rose by 4.0% after 3.9% in January (initially reported as 4.1%).

... and the background

After the nerve-wracking back and forth over tariffs this week, the US employment report for February was rather unspectacular. However, this is also due to the fact that the data was already collected around February 12, i.e. before the job cuts at the federal government really took off. However, there was already a small impact. The number of people employed by the federal administration fell by 10,000. In the six months prior to that, it had still been increasing by an average of 2,500 per month. The escalation of the trade conflict also took place after the survey date. The significantly increased uncertainty and the resulting likely reluctance of companies to hire new employees will only be reflected in the next reports.

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