Protectionism – it's not just Trump

There is no doubt that Donald Trump is a staunch protectionist.

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Dr. Jörg Krämer

Commerzbank Economic Research

02/07/2025

But the causes of rampant protectionism lie much deeper. For example, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has made no progress in dismantling trade barriers over the last thirty years. In addition, the US has lost its leadership role in the WTO due to the rise of China, so it has less incentive to follow its rules. Furthermore, hopes for political change in China through trade have not been fulfilled.

Trump is a symptom rather than a cause of protectionism

Donald Trump is a staunch protectionist who wrongly views global trade as a zero-sum game and believes that the US can win any trade war in which the Americans have a trade deficit. But Trump is more a symptom rather than a cause of rampant protectionism. The causes of the disintegration of the rules-based global trade system lie much deeper.

Free trade always has a hard time

Free trade is a shaky construct anyway. That's because the disadvantages of global trade are obvious to voters: companies relocate their production and the associated jobs abroad, while dependence on imports from China, for example, grows in return. Such reports make the headlines and play to the advantage of left- and right-wing populists. By contrast, the advantages of free trade are less obvious. Consumers benefit from foreign trade primarily through lower prices and a wider selection. But consumers don't know what a car would cost without free trade.

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