Update Quant Inflation Model – Inflation falls more slowly
Our machine-learning based Quant-model predicts higher inflation in the euro area for the first half of next year than it did a month ago.
Commerzbank Economic Research
12/19/2024
The Quant-model expects higher inflation
Our Quant-model based on machine learning (see here ) expects the euro area inflation rate to be 0.2 percentage points higher on average in the first half of next year than it did last month. This is shown by updated calculations based on data available up to mid-December. This is already the second upward revision of the forecasting model in a row. Nevertheless, the model still expects inflation to fall noticeably next year – to around 2.0% by June. According to the model, the ECB target of 2.0% will not be undershot in the coming months.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
