China – Trump tariffs

The second Trump administration will likely raise import tariffs on Chinese products, possibly up to 60% or even higher.

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Tommy Wu

Commerzbank Economic Research

11/06/2024

This is certainly bad news for China and would risk a global trade war. While the impact on Chinese exports and growth would be significant, it may not be as bad as it may be seen at face value.

Trump plans new tariffs, will leave tech restrictions in place

Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% or more. During the first Trump administration, the Trump tariffs covered 66% of Chinese exports to the US, with US import tariff rate on Chinese products rose from on average 3.1% in early 2018 to 19.3% in 2020 onwards, according to data from Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

The potential new Trump tariffs would be on top of the existing export controls on advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment, as well as tariffs on electric vehicles, solar panels, green technology, medical products, and critical materials imposed under the Biden administration. The second Trump administration will likely leave these restrictions and tariffs in place, if not increasing them further.

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