Germany – Early Bird does not get off the ground

Once again no signal of hope from the Early Bird. Our leading indicator for the German economy fell again slightly from -0.21 to -0.22 points in February after an increase in the previous month. The global economic environment has brightened again slightly, particularly because the Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing in the eurozone (excluding Germany) has risen significantly. In addition, the at times very strong headwind from the FX market over the course of the past year has continued to ease. However, this was more than offset by rising short-term real interest rates. The nominal interest rate has fallen slightly recently, but this has been more than offset by falling inflation.

With its negative value, the Early Bird continues to signal a below-average economic environment for the German economy. A noticeable economic recovery is still not in sight.

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