Germany – Early Bird keeps rising
Our leading indicator for the German economy rose again in September and, at 15 points, is now well into positive territory.
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/04/2024
In September, the Early Bird continued its upward trend, which has lasted for more than a year, climbing from 10 to 15 points. Monetary policy remains the driver of the rise. This is because the short-term real interest rate is now significantly lower than a year ago, partly due to the ECB's latest interest rate cuts. In addition, the headwind from the FX market, which was quite strong at times last year, has lessened in recent months. This does not apply to the global economy, however. It's true, that the three PMIs for manufacturing that we take into account for the indicator – for the US, China and the eurozone excluding Germany – did improve slightly on average in September. However, they are still well below the long-term average and thus exert downward pressure on the Early Bird on its own.
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