Germany – Stronger euro weighs on Early Bird

Our Early Bird indicator continued its downward trend in September, which has now lasted for just over six months. It fell by three points to 32 points. The stronger euro is primarily responsible for this decline in recent months. While the indicator of the German economy's price competitiveness – the real external value of a fictitious Deutschmark – was still almost 1% lower at the beginning of the year than a year earlier, it was almost 2% higher in September than in September 2024. This is likely to slow German exports in the coming quarters. The global economic environment is also rather unfavorable, but at least it has not deteriorated further in recent months. The widely hoped-for economic recovery is therefore unlikely to be triggered by a strong increase in foreign demand.

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