Germany – orders deliver cold shower
Order intake in German industry fell by 0.8% in August, which was significantly weaker than generally expected.
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/07/2025
Following the sharp decline in the Ifo business climate index two weeks ago, this is the next cold shower for hopes of a revival in the German economy: contrary to general expectations, incoming orders did not rise in August after the sharp decline in July, but fell again by 0.8% compared with the previous month. As expected, there were again significantly more big ticket orders. However, this was more than offset by a massive decline of 3.3% in the core figure excluding these orders. After this core figure had largely moved sideways since the beginning of 2024, there is now a threat of a renewed decline in demand for German industrial goods. However, there have been repeated upward and downward outliers over the past two years without this ending the sideways trend. This time, too, it could be an outlier. In August, for example, order intake in the automotive industry fell particularly sharply, which could be a consequence of the comparatively late factory holidays.
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