France's government collapses – What is next?
The French government failed a vote of no confidence yesterday evening.
Commerzbank Economic Research
09/09/2025
French government resigns
French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in parliament yesterday evening by a clear margin. With the two major opposition parties having already announced their intention to vote against the centrist politician Bayrou, the outcome of the vote came as little surprise. This is the second time parliament has withdrawn its confidence in a prime minister since the new elections in the summer of 2024.
The reason for the latest vote of confidence was once again the state finances: Bayrou had used the vote of confidence to try to pass the budget for 2026 with various austerity measures. The reforms were intended to reduce the budget deficit from 5.4% this year to 4.6% next year. The draft budget and the reform package have thus also failed.
What happens next?
President Emmanuel Macron has announced that he will accept Bayrou's resignation today and appoint a new prime minister in the coming days. He has the choice between a centrist or moderate right-wing politician, which would not resolve the political deadlock, or a moderate left-wing politician. The latter is the most likely scenario. However, this could limit Macron's influence and intensify conflicts over tax and budget policy. With the presidential election approaching, the willingness to compromise will remain low across all camps.
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