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How ChatGPT helps to forecast ECB decisions

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26 July 2024: How ChatGPT helps to forecast ECB decisions

We employ ChatGPT to interpret several thousand speeches by ECB Governing Council members and categorise them as dovish or hawkish. The new derived "ChatECB Indicator" supports our forecast that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates in the coming quarters, albeit to a moderate extent.

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