Forecasts

Our leading indicator Early Bird and macroeconomic forecasts

Bird view on a meeting desk with hands of several persons tipping on a laptop, using pocket calculators taking notes or pointing to documents
© Commerzbank
10 March 2026

Germany – Early Bird climbs further

Our leading indicator for the German economy, the Early Bird, rose in March from 17 to 23 points, primarily because headwinds from the FX market have subsided. This means that the economic conditions have improved once again, although the indicator does not even take into account the boost from fiscal policy. These favorable conditions continue to point to an economic recovery, even if it is likely to be delayed due to the strain caused by the war in Iran.