Forecasts

Germany – Early Bird in full decline

Our leading indicator for the German economy fell noticeably to 11 points in December, down from 20 points in November. The Early Bird is rapidly approaching zero, signaling that conditions for the German economy are hardly above average anymore. In addition to the waning effects of monetary policy, headwinds are brewing for foreign trade. This leaves expansionary fiscal policy as the remaining anchor of hope for the German economy.