Forecasts

Germany – Early Bird continues to decline

Our leading indicator for the German economy fell again in November. At 20 points – down from 27 in October – it is still well above zero, signaling that economic conditions for the German economy remain above average. However, its sustained decline since the beginning of the year shows that the momentum provided by the variables included in our indicator will fade over the course of the coming year at the latest, meaning that hopes for a sustained economic recovery are increasingly resting on expansionary fiscal policy.