Forecasts

Germany – Early Bird gives us a glimmer of hope

Our leading indicator for the German economy, the Early Bird, rose significantly in April from 24 to 31 points, continuing the upward trend seen in recent months. It should be noted, however, that the Early Bird does not take into account two factors that are currently having a major impact on the German economy: the massive rise in energy prices and the significant increase in government spending. However, its rise in April indicates that other influencing factors have recently improved. This increases the likelihood that the German economy will not contract in the coming months despite the massive strain caused by the Iran war.