Forecasts

Germany – Trump weighs on Early Bird

Our leading indicator for the German economy fell quite significantly in April for the second month in a row. The decline from 43 points in March to 35 points in April was due to a weaker global economy and a stronger euro, which are probably primarily attributable to the tariff policy of the US president. With a value well in positive territory, the Early Bird continues to signal above-average economic conditions and thus an imminent upturn in the German economy. However, this is likely to be very moderate, partly due to US tariff policy.