Forecasts

Our leading indicator Early Bird and macroeconomic forecasts

Bird view on a meeting desk with hands of several persons tipping on a laptop, using pocket calculators taking notes or pointing to documents
© Commerzbank
4 September 2026

Germany – Early Bird Remains Positive

The Early Bird fell from 33 to 25 points in August because the tailwind from monetary policy continues to wane and the euro has strengthened slightly again. Despite the decline, however, our leading indicator remains clearly in positive territory, suggesting that the German economy will continue to grow in the coming quarters.