Our leading indicator Early Bird and macroeconomic forecasts

Bird view on a meeting desk with hands of several persons tipping on a laptop, using pocket calculators taking notes or pointing to documents
© Commerzbank
5 July 2024

Germany – Early Bird continues to give hope

Unlike the Ifo business climate and PMIs, our leading indicator for the German economy continued to rise in June. At -2, it is now only slightly below the zero line. As in previous months, the main reason for the rise was the fact that monetary policy is no longer slowing the economy, but is in fact now actually boosting it again. On the other hand, the global economy and the FX markets are still tending to create headwinds. Overall, the Early Bird continues to raise hopes of an economic recovery in the second half of the year, although this is likely to be rather muted.