Our leading indicator Early Bird and macroeconomic forecasts

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5 April 2024

Germany – Revised Early Bird gives hope

Our revised leading indicator for the German economy gives us hope that growth will pick up in the second half of the year. Although it remains in negative territory with a value of -11, it has risen significantly in recent months. In addition to a somewhat stronger world economy and diminishing headwinds from the FX market, the main reason for this is that the dampening effect of the ECB's interest rate hikes is gradually diminishing.