Economic Briefing/Economic Insights
To-the-point economic analysis by Commerzbank's research team
© Commerzbank
17 April 2025
ECB drops neutral rate
At first glance, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided any pre-committment at today's press conference. However, she dropped the frequently discussed concept of the neutral interest rate, which most Council members see as having a lower limit of 2%. In doing so, Lagarde fuelled speculation that the ECB could lower its deposit rate more significantly. In our main scenario, we see two more rate cuts to 1.75%. However, if Trump were to return to higher reciprocal tariffs permanently, a lower deposit rate would be likely.
