Economic Briefing/Economic Insights

Update €-inflation – The core rate does not budge

Our quant model based on machine learning forecasts higher core inflation in the euro area for the coming months than it did in August. Inflation excluding energy, food, alocohol and tobacco will therefore decline more slowly than previously assumed. Our analysis of inflation details also shows no movement in underlying inflationary pressure at present. Only in the coming months is the momentum of service inflation likely to slow due to slower wage growth and lower energy prices.