Economic Briefing/Economic Insights

To-the-point economic analysis by Commerzbank's research team

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11 April 2024

ECB all but announced a rate cut in June

The ECB has unexpectedly clearly indicated a first rate cut in June. A lot will have to happen to derail the rate cut in June. This is risky because consumer prices have recently risen much more sharply, not only in the US but also in the eurozone, mainly as a result of strong wage growth. The ECB will not be able to ignore the unresolved inflation problem in the long term, which is why we expect far fewer rate cuts in 2025 than most economists.