Economic Briefing/Economic Insights

ECB – no October rate cut

At today's press conference, the ECB gave the impression that it does not intend to cut its policy rates again in October. ECB President Lagarde played down the significance of an below 2% inflation rate in September. In our opinion, the persistently high underlying inflation and the sharp rise in wages suggest that the ECB will wait until December to cut rates again, when it has the new inflation projections. We continue to expect two further interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, with the deposit rate likely to reach 2.75% by mid-2025.