US inflation remains too high
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from the previous month, more than expected.
Commerzbank Economic Research
11/10/2026
The data
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from the previous month, slightly more than expected. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.3%. This core reading exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.2% but matched our forecast. A year-over-year rate is not being calculated this time because not all prices were collected in October 2025 due to the government shutdown that affected the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
To obtain at least an estimate of the year-over-year rate, the missing October 2025 figure can be interpolated from the September and November data. On this basis, the headline inflation rate rose from 3.7% to 4.0%. The core rate excluding food and energy increased from 2.6% to 2.8%.
The details
Inflation pressures in the U.S. remain elevated, even though the month-over-month increases eased slightly from September. The headline increase was 0.4%, down from 0.6%, while the core increase was 0.30%, down from 0.33%.
Gasoline prices rose 1.0%, but price increases were broadly based. The indirect effects of higher energy prices were reflected in food prices (+0.5%) and transportation services (+0.8%). Overall, prices for goods excluding food and energy, which are normally stable, rose 0.2%. Services excluding food and energy increased 0.3%, also above the usual pace for this category.
Core inflation, a key gauge of the underlying trend, thus remains (too) high and is no longer trending downward. Over the past three months, it reached an annualized rate of 3.7%. The strong economy and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East suggest that inflation is unlikely to ease in the near term. Inflation is not expected to decline until 2027, and even then it is likely to remain above a level consistent with price stability.
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