Big win for Democrats

In the U.S. midterm elections, the sharp shift toward the Democrats that pollsters had projected has materialized.

Dr. Christoph Balz

Commerzbank Economic Research

11/04/2026

Democrats are poised to capture majorities in both chambers of Congress. They even scored victories in traditionally Republican strongholds such as Texas. The outcome is so decisive that it has defused any debate over potential election manipulation. For President Trump, who has already acknowledged the defeat, the result represents a significant setback. In the final two years of his term, he is now likely to rely even more heavily on executive orders and foreign policy, areas in which the president enjoys greater freedom of action and faces fewer constraints from Congress.

In yesterday’s congressional elections, President Trump’s Republicans appear to have suffered the substantial defeat that had been widely anticipated. In fact, the Democrats seem to have performed even better than most polls had suggested. Until now, Republicans held majorities in both chambers of Congress. The balance of power has now shifted decisively in favor of the Democrats, giving them significantly greater influence over the legislative agenda and the broader direction of U.S. politics.

Democrats on track for clear majority in both houses ...

In the House of Representatives, where all seats were up for election, Republicans previously held a majority of 219 to 214 seats, with two vacancies. Based on the current vote count, the Associated Press projects that Democrats have secured 209 seats, while Republicans have won only 124 (Chart 1). Another 102 races remain undecided.

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