AI and the US economy: Q&A

To what extent is AI driving the U.S. economy?

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Bernd Weidensteiner

Commerzbank Economic Research

10/30/2026

Is the boom bigger than that of the “New Economy” of the 1990s? What will happen if the AI bubble bursts? Could that lead to a debt crisis? We answer frequently asked questions.

How much of US growth is powered by AI?

U.S. companies are investing enormous sums in building the infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI). Since AI is not yet a separately reported component of the national accounts, corporate spending on AI must be estimated based on investments in computers, software, data centers, and similar AI-related expenditures. For example, real investment in IT rose at an average annualized rate of nearly 25% over the eight quarters through Q3 2026. These investments by U.S. companies increase the U.S. economy’s real gross domestic product (GDP). Over the past eight quarters, AI investments have made a significant contribution of 0.9 percentage points to the average economic growth rate of 2.3%.

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