China – Q3 rebound put growth target within reach
China's Q3 2026 GDP expanded 4.5% yoy, beating the consensus forecast of 4.4% and recovering from 4.3% in Q2.
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/19/2026
Growth edges back above consensus
China's economy expanded 4.5% yoy in 2026 Q3 (Bloomberg consensus: 4.4%) vs 4.3% in Q2. On a sequential basis, GDP grew 1.2% qoq, accelerating from the 0.9% pace in Q2. With the official full-year target set between 4.5% and 5%, the result reduces immediate pressure on policymakers but does not eliminate it. Sustaining or modestly accelerating the current pace through Q4 remains a prerequisite for a clean target delivery, and the composition of growth still reflects meaningful structural imbalances.
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