US inflation surprisingly hot again

U.S. consumer prices rose significantly in September, up 0.6% from the previous month.

Bernd Weidensteiner

Commerzbank Economic Research

10/14/2026

This was not only due to noticeably higher gasoline prices. Even more important is the excessive underlying price pressure, as evidenced by the core inflation rate—excluding energy and food—which came in at 0.3%, exceeding expectations. Clearly, the strong economy and indirect effects of higher energy prices are also driving inflation. The Federal Reserve will continue to raise key interest rates.

The data

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in September compared with the previous month. Excluding energy and food, they rose 0.3%, slightly more than we and the consensus had expected. Year-over-year rates increased, with the headline rate—which covers all goods and services—rising from 3.4% to 3.7%, and the core rate rising from 2.4% to 2.6%.

The background

Inflationary pressure in the U.S. remains high. The reported rates for the previous month—already high at 0.6% (overall rate) and 0.3% (core rate, excluding energy and food)—actually understate the price pressure, since the figures, calculated to three decimal places, were 0.649% and 0.335%, respectively—not far from being rounded up.

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